Voit Real Estate Blog

Posts Tagged ‘commercial’

Discover the Secrets to Substantially Cutting Your Overhead by Renewing or Renegotiating Your Office Lease

Thursday, July 15th, 2010

The three biggest, most common and risky mistakes tenants make when renewing or renegotiating their lease are:

1. Not developing alternatives to the lease they are negotiating.

2. Leaving it too late to negotiate and/or move if necessary.

3. Trusting the landlord’s broker to negotiate a “good deal” for them.

Once a landlord believes the tenant is planning to stay, does not have time to move or is prepared to let the landlord’s broker represent them, all negotiating leverage is lost and the landlord is in control. So, even if you plan on renewing your lease, you must find alternatives to your existing lease to show the landlord you have other options and that he could lose you to a competitor. The easiest and most effective way to do this and regain control is to hire a tenant representation broker to represent you on your lease renewal, research other options and create the negotiating leverage and freedom for you to move if you choose to. Besides, your broker will do all the work and they simply share the landlord broker’s fee, which is paid in full whether you are represented or not!

We can renew or renegotiate your commercial real estate lease at almost any time and create opportunities for you to benefit from substantially reduced occupancy costs, greater operational efficiency and flexibility to grow or downsize, as well and realigning your real estate with your business plan.

Below are just some of the benefits our expert negotiating skills have proven successful in achieving for our clients:

1. Expand or downsize your premises
2. Reduce base rent and operating expenses
3. Lock in fixed rents and operating expenses long term
4. Reduce or remove security deposits, personal guarantees or letters of credit
5. Eliminate operating expense pass through charges
6. Secure landlord dollars to expand or improve your facilities or buy new equipment
7. Revise obsolete or onerous leases and lease terms
8. Secure favorable rights and options to expand, contract, purchase the building, extend or terminate your lease
9. Resolve disputes between you and your landlord

Landlords often discourage tenants from seeking tenant representation so they can negotiate higher rents and lease terms that are onerous to the tenant. The landlord’s broker may also discourage you from hiring your own broker so they don’t have to share their fee.

Furthermore, lease renewal terms offered to existing tenants are often less attractive as lease terms offered to new tenants. This is because landlords know that a tenant that doesn’t have a tenant representation broker to advise them on the most attractive lease terms achievable is more likely to accept the landlord’s terms and assume they are getting a “fair deal” and less likely to take advantage of more beneficial lease opportunities elsewhere. So while you may have a good relationship with your landlord and believe you are getting a great deal on your lease renewal, beware!

No matter how good you think your relationship is with your landlord, he is in the business of maximizing his profits by getting the most rent possible, period. Until you create competition for your tenancy and hire an experienced tenant representation broker, your landlord will consider you a captive tenant, willing to pay asking or above-market rents on your lease renewal or renegotiation.

Lease renewals and negotiations can be complicated and time consuming. There’s much more to negotiate than just the rent. And how do you know you’re getting the most attractive lease terms anyway? Parking charges, operating expense pass throughs and add-ons, security deposits, tenant improvement allowances and endless complicated and misleading lease terms and conditions, with far reaching financial and operational implications, are all up for negotiation. Only with the benefit of a tenant representation broker can you be guaranteed exposure to every opportunity and the negotiating power to secure the best terms available on your lease renewal or renegotiation.

Our proven lease renewal process provides you with the strategy, market knowledge and negotiating expertise to guarantee you access to every alternative option available in the marketplace and advise you on the most attractive lease terms achievable on a lease renewal or renegotiation. We firstly audit your lease to determine the options available for reducing your occupancy costs and building flexibility into your lease to achieve your business goals. We then create significant negotiating leverage with your landlord by identifying competitive alternative opportunities to secure the most cost-effective, risk-free lease terms possible on a lease renewal or renegotiation. We do all this in a professional manner that won’t damage your relationship with the landlord.

We also manage the entire process from start to finish so you don’t have to, saving you valuable time and mney and exposure to risk while you focus on running your business

To learn more about how you can renew or renegotiate your office lease to significantly reduce your occupancy costs by up to 30% and solve your space problems, click HERE or call Stefan Rogers at (949) 263 5362.

Commercial Real Estate Watch: North & Central Orange County Office & Industrial

Monday, July 12th, 2010

Like the majority of Orange County, the North and Central commercial real estate submarkets experienced much of the same market trends in the first quarter: continued increases in vacancy rates across all sectors, juxtaposed against slow but strengthening demand.

These trends could indicate that the overall commercial real estate market in the county now may be at, or may be close to, the bottom.

Combined, the North and Central County submarkets include more than 3,400 commercial properties totaling nearly 179 million square feet, which holds an average vacancy rate of less than 10%—with the exception of the office market.

Construction of new space remains almost non-existent with only 496,000 square feet of industrial space in the development phase.

Demand continued to show slow momentum through the first quarter of the year, as evidenced by the 282,000 square feet of absorption across all types of buildings.

Office

The vacancy level for office space in North and Central County increased in the first quarter to 18.1% from 15.4% in the first quarter of 2009. This decline in occupancy partially can be attributed to 288,524 square feet of negative absorption. Although not as dramatic as witnessed in past quarters, the average asking lease rate for available space in these submarkets continues to decrease, dipping 2 cents from the previous quarter to $1.98 per square foot.

Industrial

The industrial market—which is made up of 2,543 manufacturing and warehouse buildings and 184 research and development buildings—saw an increase in activity this quarter. There were 1.8 million square feet of leases and sales recorded this quarter, representing an increase in activity of more than 40%.

The increased demand counterbalanced the amount of vacant space coming onto the market this quarter, resulting in 653,937 square feet of absorbed space.

This also led to a decreased vacancy rate, which now stands at 5.2%…Click HERE to view the full article.
Source: www.ocbj.com

Need to Know Considerations For Timing Your Office Space Move

Wednesday, July 7th, 2010

Searching for office space is difficult enough. Allowing enough time to complete the leasing process is another matter. Identifying a new office space, negotiate a lease, and manage any tenant improvements and the relocation process always takes longer than you think!

A typical relocation work schedule can be accelerated and compressed depending on the depth of construction required and the streamlining of real estate related assignments and services. Choosing a well qualified tenant representation broker who can in turn advise you on the right set of buildings on the front end is critical to meeting any schedule.

Below is a good timeframe to follow for for small to medium office space lease transactions:

Month 1: Define the Requirement

• Define space requirement and location parameters
• Sample space diagrams and adjacency planning.
• Establish timing and required milestones.
• Vendor selection process.
• Select real estate broker.
• Review representative buildings available.

Month 2: Create Options

• Initial building tours financial analysis.
• Space programming and test fits.
• Further budgeting for anticipated outcomes.
• Select other vendors required.
• Review representative buildings available.

Month 3: Negotiate the Best Deals

• Short list of properties.
• RFPs to building landlords.
• Due diligence of building candidates.
• Further budgeting and financial analysis.
Management discussions and approvals.
• Final term sheet negotiations.
• Final vendors selected.

Months 4-5: Design and Build

• Obtain management approval and execute lease.
• Construction drawings.
• Obtain permits.
• Award vendor contracts.
• Vendor coordination.
• Start construction.
• Procurement of equipment and services.
• Review representative buildings available.

Months 6-9: Construction – Move In

• Telecommunication and IT activity.
• Installation of furniture, trade equipment and leasehold fixtures.
• Construction punch list.

Outsourcing the real estate process to a qualified tenant representation broker is essential to ensure the leasing process is managed efficiently, and to save the maximum amount of time and money while minimizing your exposure to real estate risk.

For further information or advise on the office leasing process, call Stefan Rogers at Voit Commercial Tenant Solutions at 949.263.5362.

Post-Bankruptcy, Irvine’s Bacchus Looks To Up Sales of Office Buildings

Tuesday, July 6th, 2010

Developer eyes $75M in Irvine office deals by ’12

Irvine’s Bacchus Development has emerged from bankruptcy reorganization with an aggressive sales plan based on the hope that the local commercial real estate market is about to improve.

A Santa Ana bankruptcy judge last month approved a reorganization plan for Bacchus, which has built several hundred smaller office buildings for sale in projects around the Irvine Spectrum.

With court proceedings cleared up, “We can now concentrate on selling the remaining buildings in our office parks,” Bacchus President Steven Bren said in a statement.

About 40 buildings, totaling some 300,000 square feet of space, remain unsold at three company projects: the Bacchus Office Park, Bacchus Signature Series and Jeffrey Office Park. The buildings run from about 5,000 to 20,000 square feet.

A total of 169 buildings were built at the three projects.

The developer’s hoping to sell most of those remaining buildings for $300 per square foot or higher, which would bring in more than $90 million and pay off all of the company’s secured debt.

For that to happen, Bacchus is betting on an improvement in sales and prices before 2012.

Under the reorganization plan, the company has about a year and a half to complete sales at the older Bacchus Office Park and Bacchus Signature Series complexes, and three years to finish sales at its newest project, the Jeffrey Office Park.

The bulk of unsold buildings are at Jeffrey Office Park.

Bacchus offices sold for more than $400 per square foot at the peak of the market a few years ago.

Realistic pricing was one of the main bankruptcy sticking points between Bacchus and its main financier, San Francisco-based Union Bank, part of Japan’s Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc.

Bacchus filed for bankruptcy protection last September, after falling behind on payments to Union Bank on nearly $55 million in loans.

Including other loans, Bacchus owed Union Bank close to $76 million at the time of the filing.

Union Bank and its appraisers have a more negative outlook on potential sales of Bacchus buildings, telling the court it expected future sales ultimately to trade hands for $177 per square foot, about 40% below the developer’s projections.

The bank’s appraisers also took a negative view about the timing for a recovery in Orange County’s commercial real estate market, saying the market was likely to bump along the bottom for the near term.

Sales Goals

Bacchus officials said they expect to see modest appreciation in prices in the remainder of 2010, with more noticeable improvements in 2011 and 2012.

In approving the reorganization plan, U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Robert Kwan gave the benefit of the doubt to Bacchus.

The plan “presents feasible sales goals and results,” Kwan said in his June 23 decision.

Under the reorganization plan, Bacchus is expecting to sell $35 million worth of buildings in the next year, with an additional $40 million in sales the following year.

Bacchus sold 17 buildings for $31 million in 2009.

Bacchus has the most work to do at its newest development, the 23-acre Jeffrey Office Park, near the Santa Ana (I-5) Freeway and Jeffrey Road.

At month’s end, there still were more than 25 unsold buildings remaining at the 50-building project, which opened in late 2008. Those building total about 170,000 square feet.

If sales at Jeffrey Office Park come in at $300 per square foot, Bacchus could earn profits in excess of $6 million, beyond what is owed to creditors, according to court documents.

So far in 2010, as in 2009, sales have been slower than expected at the office condominium projects. Only four buildings at Jeffrey Office Park sold last year, although as of mid-June, the company had four properties in escrow, which could result in $20 million in sales, according to court documents.

Sluggish sales in 2010 likely are due more to negative publicity resulting from the company’s bankruptcy status, rather than an indication of a still-depressed market, the company told the court.

Creditors voted “overwhelmingly in favor of the plan,” according to Bren.

Bren is the son of Irvine Company Chairman Donald Bren. Bacchus bought the land for its projects from the Newport Beach-based company, but otherwise Irvine Co. isn’t involved with Bacchus.

The size and prominence of Bacchus developments—and the Bren family connection—made the company’s bankruptcy one of the more notable casualties of the local commercial real estate downturn.

In addition to the company’s financial issues, Bren also resolved unrelated criminal charges late last year and was ordered to drug and domestic violence counseling.

Bren is slated to remain in charge of day-to-day operations of the company following conclusion of the bankruptcy case.

Brian Weiss, of Irvine-based advisory firm BSW & Associates, was acting as chief restructuring officer for the company during bankruptcy. He’s now set to become a vice president.
Source: www.ocbj.com

Office Tenant’s Guide to Commercial Real Estate Tenant Representation

Thursday, July 1st, 2010

Unlike brokers that represent landlords and owners, Tenant Representation brokers specialize in representing the best interests of tenants and space users only on the lease and purchase of commercial real estate.

The value a business can gain from hiring a tenant representation broker to handle its corporate real estate, just as it would hire a CPA for financial and an attorney for legal matters, is so significant, it’s essential every business owner understands the benefits. With real estate typically being a business’s second largest expense, companies can’t afford to overlook the benefits of professional tenant representation services when thousands of dollars are ultimately at stake.

Companies that employ an in-house corporate real estate director to manage their real estate, or outsource their needs to a professional tenant representation advisor, avoid wasting significant money and time that would otherwise be converted to profit!

There are no savings to be had by not hiring a tenant representation broker.

Every listing agreement compensates the landlord’s broker with an industry standard fee, which the landlord’s broker shares with the tenant’s/buyer’s tenant representation broker if they have one. This incentivizes the landlord’s broker to find a tenant that isn’t benefitting from their own tenant representation broker, because the landlord’s broker will receive the entire fee for negotiating against them! There is no discount to be had by not hiring your own tenant representation broker so you should take advantage of this service because the full commission WILL be paid on every listing whether you are represented or not. Furthermore, our negotiating expertise and intimate knowledge of commercial real estate has proven to save clients an average of 30% in occupancy costs, several times greater than the full listing fee!..Click HERE to view the full article.

When Should I Start Looking for Office Space to Lease?

Monday, June 28th, 2010

This is one of the most important real estate decisions you’ll ever make for your business!

Why? Because if you’re not familiar with how long the commercial real estate leasing or buying process takes, you’ll likely get it wrong. Get it wrong, and you’re in trouble!

I get calls every day from businesses wanting (needing!) office space and they’re ready to “sign a lease tomorrow”. No you’re not! I had three yesterday, hence my urge to post this blog.

Quite simply, the old adage applies..“Failing to plan is planning to fail” and I can’t emphasise enough how crucial it is be proactive and always have a real estate strategy that fits yor business plan so you’re not left high and dry when your lease expires sooner than you thought.

Your business’s real estate is a critical part of your business operations, otherwise you’d do without it; because it’s not cheap! So when it’s time to deal with your corporate real estate you must allow plenty of time to prepare a real estate strategy, understand your options in the marketplace, search for real estate and qualify locations, negotiate and close, do tenant improvements, relocate and get back to business.

Otherwise, you risk making rushed decisions and settling for real estate options that are far from ideal and perhaps restrict the ability for your business to thrive, you’ll waste valuable man-hours running scrambling to find a new location, you’ll lose every ounce of negotiating leverage with a landlord because he’ll know you need the space “tomorrow”, AND it will stress you out!

So don’t procrastinate. Your real estate wont take care of itself. If you’re putting off the process because you don’t have time or don’t know where/how to start, hire a tenant representation broker to do all the leg work for you so you can focus on your business and not worry about your real estate.

Below is a guide to the typical minimum time frame needed to successfully complete the real estate leasing or buying process from start to finish for various sizes of space. Typically, the larger your requirement, the longer it will take.

1,000 SF – 5,000 SF = 3-6 Months
5,001 SF – 10,000 SF = 4-9 Months
10,001 SF – 20,000 SF = 6-10 Months
20,001 SF – 50,000 SF = 8-15 Months
50,001 SF – 100,000 SF = 15-24 Months
100,001+ SF = 24+ Months

When asked, I tell every client, “It always takes longer than you think”, and I regret to say that I’ve been right almost every time.

Common Office Leasing Mistake: Using the Landlord’s Real Estate Broker

Friday, June 18th, 2010

One of the most significant and common mistakes a commercial tenant can make is not retaining the services of a qualified real estate broker when negotiating a sale, lease, expansion, termination, or renewal of their office space.

And by “qualified”, I mean a real estate broker, or tenant representative in this case, that has a fiduciary responsibility to represent only your best interests as the tenant, not those of the landlord!

Its likely that your business will only be faced with a single real estate transaction in a given market every few years, so this process will need to be managed by an expert. Ask yourself, are you that expert? A landlord and their broker (the listing broker) on the other hand is involved in negotiating leases on an on-going basis. They are experts. So you don’t want to risk dealing face to face with either of these parties.

Find an expert

Your exclusive tenant representative can provide the experience and expertise, market knowledge, leverage, and negotiation skills you need to not only level the playing field but achieve results that meet your business needs, not just the landlord’s. They can also provide insider information on landlords, and advise on recommended service providers, market trends and forecasts, and guide you through the leasing process with a predetermined real estate strategy that is aligned with your business plan while you remain focused on running your business.

You should also continue to keep your real estate broker involved whenever you are considering expanding, renewing, or extending your lease. A tenant without an exclusive real estate broker representative often sends a loud and clear signal to the landlord that the tenant is not serious about moving and thereby significantly diminishes the impact of one of the most important “pressure points” the tenant has access to when considering its options and negotiating or renegotiating lease-related transactions. It’s very difficult to negotiate a more favorable rental structure and concessions package on a lease renewal than on a new lease for the simple reason that the tenant is always considered somewhat captive by the landlord due to the cost of moving.

Finally, when you consider the fact that the listing broker typically recieves the entire leasing commission if you don’t have your own representative, it really should be an easy decision to retain the services of a qualified tenant representative when you’re paying for this benefit of your own representative in your rent.

Commercial Tenant’s Guide to Choosing the Best Real Estate Advisor

Tuesday, June 8th, 2010

Choosing the right real estate professional is the first and most important decision you will need to make when embarking on the commercial real estate leasing, lease renewal negotiating, subleasing or buying process.

If you’re thinking of attempting to manage the process yourself, click HERE to read an article on the benefits of exclusive tenant representation. Then think again about your situation and your ability to manage it effectively and read on.

As a prospective buyer or tenant of commercial real estate, it’s important to take advantage of the valuable service a professional real estate advisor can add to a process can quickly become risky, expensive and time consuming. Like any large business undertaking, failure to seek professional advice on an area outside of your expertise may lead to misinformed decision making that will place your business at risk and certainly the lack of market knowledge and negotiating expertise to extract the maximum concessions from a transaction.

Fortunately however, most business owners are only faced with a corporate real estate transaction or challenge every couple of years. That being said, if you don’t already have one, how do you go about choosing a commercial real estate advisor who’s qualified to achieve your goals? And if you do, how do you determine your current representative is up to the job this time around?

Below are eight hard and fast rules to thoroughly consider for choosing the best commercial real estate advisor for the job:

1. Choose a broker who will represent your best interests, not the landlord’s or seller’s, to avoid a Dual Agency situation.

First and foremost, choose a broker without the conflicts of interest associated with representing landlords and sellers. And whatever you do, don’t choose the landlord’s/buyer’s broker to represent you! While this may seem obvious, it’s the biggest mistake tenants and buyers make, often perpetuated by the listing broker who may claim you will save money because they don’t need to pay your representative and you will save time as you can negotiate direct. It’s important to understand the listing broker is motivated to create a dual agency situation because he will receive the entire fee for negotiating against you, the tenant or buyer, who lacks his negotiating expertise and market knowledge. Hence the landlord wins, you get a raw deal and can only hope that the listing broker assists you with the often time consuming tenant improvement and relocation process once the deal is closed and he’s been paid.

While dual agency is perfectly legal in California and can sometimes result in a fair outcome, it is fraught with potential conflicts that must be managed by the broker to protect the best interests of both parties to the transaction and himself. Quite frankly, no matter how convinced the listing broker is that he can avoid conflicts of interest in a dual agency situation, it’s practically impossible to do so. Thus, choosing a buyer/tenant representation specialist is essential to achieve optimum results. In doing so, you instantly avoid the conflict of interest risk and can be confident that you have an expert on your side (not the landlord’s!) that will work hard and provide the expertise and knowledge to understand and achieve your needs and represent your best interests only. Would you hire the same attorney as your adversary to represent you in a lawsuit? Of course you wouldn’t. Hiring a real estate representative should be treated in the same fashion.

2. Choose a broker who is a specialist in Tenant/Buyer Representation

Besides not having conflicts of interest to manage, a specialist in tenant/buyer representation provides many other services exclusive to his specialty and will provide a much higher level of service and commitment than a generalist that represents both landlords and tenants. With depth of experience and expertise in specializing in representing tenants comes the wisdom to apply the knowledge, tools and resources to achieve your objectives and to serve your best interests. A specialist will also likely be able to dedicate more time and energy to serving your needs than a broker that represents both landlords and tenants. They will not be overwhelmed with having to juggle as many transactions and constantly preparing time consuming marketing reports to landlords. They’ll also be there for you to project manage any tenant improvements and facility needs you have either immediately after the transaction has closed or at any time during your lease.

3. Choose a broker who has experience in your immediate area.

There is no substitute for true market knowledge; knowledge, which can only be gained through extensive transaction experience in a defined geographic area. It is, quite simply, the only way to acquire the market ‘intelligence’ required to drive the hardest bargain for a tenant or buyer. An experienced tenant/buyer representation specialist who works in your target market knows not only what is available in your market before anyone else, they know every landlord’s negotiating strategy, motivations, financial constraints, operating expenses and other key information he can use to your advantage. Be careful of tenant/buyer representatives who don’t specialize geographically. They don’t have the required market knowledge to get you the best terms, and must rely on unreliable and incomplete third party databases for market data.

4. Choose a broker who has experience in your particular product type.

The importance of specialization also applies to the type of property contemplated in the lease or sale transaction. There are stark differences between industrial, office and retail properties. The physical aspects of each are substantially different, as are the lease structures, term, conditions and operating expenses, among other things. For example, a full service gross office lease is a completely different challenge than a single tenant industrial triple net lease. So, make sure that the real estate advisor you choose has a track record of handling transactions like yours…Click HERE to view the full article.

Activity in San Diego Industrial Real Estate Market Increases

Thursday, May 13th, 2010

Landlords Offering Upgrades, Lower Rents to Keep Spaces Filled

San Diego County’s industrial real estate prospects perked up in 2010’s first quarter, as vacancies trended downward from the prior quarter, and sales and lease activity increased compared with a year ago.

As with other segments, the industrial market still favors tenants, and many are moving around to take advantage of lower rents and other incentives being offered by landlords looking to keep spaces filled.

Those incentives include upgrades and additions to amenities offered by landlords to their tenants, and the option to renew leases well ahead of their expiration dates, to lock in today’s low prices.

Building purchases are picking up as investors and business operators come off the sidelines and lender financing becomes more available. However, observers note it could still be 12 to 18 months before the industrial sector is registering consistent gains in absorption and rents, hinging largely on the local jobs climate improving.

“I would say 2012 is going to be a fairly active market,” said Todd Davis, a senior adviser in the Carlsbad office of brokerage firm Cassidy Turley/BRE Commercial.

“The worst conditions have passed.”

One thing favoring the local industrial market is that its problems, even at the height of the Great Recession, were never as severe as those facing other segments, such as office and retail properties.

Lower Vacancy Rates

Experts note that because industrial users require lots of horizontal space for projects, and because land costs more and is less available locally than in neighboring counties, San Diego’s industrial market did not become wildly overbuilt like others did.

As a result, San Diego County’s industrial vacancy rates are much lower than its office and retail vacancies. Still, according to Voit Real Estate Services, local industrial vacancy in the first quarter stood at 8.67 percent, up from 6.86 percent a year ago, but lower than the 8.77 percent seen in 2009’s final quarter.

Voit notes that the county posted 165,675 square feet of positive absorption in the first quarter, reversing a trend of negative absorption in the previous six quarters.

Randy LaChance, a senior vice president in Voit’s San Diego office, says the first quarter marked a continuation of general improvement trends that took hold in 2009’s fourth quarter. Of the 15 major industrial purchase transactions that took place in 2009 — valued at $8 million and higher — about half took place in the fourth quarter alone.

Three other such sales took place countywide in 2010’s first quarter. Some of the largest industrial transactions of the quarter took place in Otay Mesa, including QueensCare’s $22.5 million acquisition of a former FedEx building on Airway Road, and EastGroup Properties Inc.’s $17 million purchase of three properties on Innovative Drive.

Businesses Relocating

However, on the tenant leasing side, which accounts for most industrial activity, LaChance says there is still a “musical chairs” climate, as companies relocate to take advantage of falling leasing rates, which have dropped 15 percent to 25 percent in the past year depending on location…Click HERE to view the full article.
Source: www.sdbj.com

OC Register Interviews Voit’s Kurt Strassman on the Latest in Commercial Real Estate

Monday, May 10th, 2010

Orange County Register – Insider Q&A
Kurt Strasmann, Managing Director, Orange County Region, Voit Real Estate Services

__________________________________________________

1. The University of San Diego recently issued a report on six leading economic indicators. What do those indicators show and what’s their implication for commercial real estate? Why?

• Since hitting a low in January and February of 2009, all most all of the leading economic indicators- stock prices, consumer confidence, port traffic ,building permits, manufacturers and non manufactures indexes as well as employment all have been improving, albeit at a slow pace, into positive territory. Most importantly for real estate is employment. Job losses are decreasing, with the total for 2010 still negative, but by 4th quarter of 2010 and into 2011 we will see positive job growth. Commercial real estate typically lags these indicators by 6 months to a year. The industry will see positive traction by the end of this year.

2. Where and how will commercial real estate in Orange County turn around?

• There are two sectors of commercial real estate, private and institutional. For the institutional investor, the market has already turned around. For trophy investment properties based on current market rents, cap rates have already declined and prices have increased, the bottom was at the end of the third quarter/start of the 4th quarter of 2009. Institutional money is aggressively chasing trophy leased-up Office and Industrial buildings. On the private user side there are still pricing pressures for owners. Lease rates/sales pricing won’t improve until the end of 2010 and moving into 2011.

3. When will commercial hit bottom and when will recovery start? How long will it take?

• We are in a trough and this settling out period will last 6 to 12 months. 2010 and early 2011 will be the transitional period. We will see a pick up in leasehold and sale price appreciation starting in 2011. Positive absorption in the market is not here yet. As we move into 2011 and 2012, we will see increases in velocity of transactions and absorption. The absence of construction will eventually lead to the decrease in available product and lower vacancy. This time next year we should have good fundamentals moving forward.

4. What sectors will recover soonest and which ones will lag?

• The retail sector will lag most because it is so overbuilt. Office is also overbuilt with negative absorption. Industrial never hit the same lows as office. With office vacancy at 18.5% versus industrial vacancy at 6.2%, industrial leased up product is highest in demand right now. Multi Family has also been extremely strong due to excellent financing available.

5. We’ve seen a significant number of commercial real estate defaults, coupled with dire predictions about the amount of loans coming due that are under water. What’s the outlook for Orange County regarding future defaults?

• No question this is the main topic on a lot of people’s mind. Most all assets purchased from 2004 through 2007 are underwater and valued far below what they were purchase. To date many lenders have offered work-outs or extending loans for 6 months to a year at a time to see if the borrower can make it or hoping by extending the time the market will catch up in values. If and when banks foreclose, it will be more of a trickle of individual assets, not an avalanche.

6. Is the worst yet to come?

• No, we hit bottom and are in the process of bouncing off if it. The key issues moving forward are how banks will deal with troubled assets. If banks move forward aggressively to foreclose then there could potentially be more big problems ahead. Instead, currently many banks have taken the extend and pretend approach, working with borrowers.

7. Optional bonus round: Are there any questions that we should have asked, and if so, what are they (and your responses to them)?

• The best news is we are seeing a lot of short term transactions, with better velocity moving forward. The main challenge that will hit private investors is how lenders deal with them on small one off assets. It could take years before the values of many of these buildings return to a value close to what was paid. In the next stage, banks will have to focus on the SBA purchases from 2005-2007. Those purchases are valued as low as 50 to 60 cents on the dollar from what was paid. It will be interesting to see how lenders work with borrowers for individual properties, to date most lenders have continued to attempt to execute work outs as their strategy. Just recently lenders have started to take a more aggressive approach and selectively moving on trouble assets. Keep an eye on pools of distressed loans to see what they will be valued at and who they will be sold to.

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